In light of the recent feud between Musk and Trump, the big question stands: Can SpaceX survive without government support?
The feud stemmed from June 5, over the passing of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” where Musk publicly disagreed with Trump, calling the bill “a disgusting abomination” that would increase the nation’s deficit, and Trump retaliated by threatening to nullify all government contracts with Musk.
SpaceX is the largest recipient of government contracts among Musk’s ventures, from contracts with NASA, the Department of Defense (DoD), and Space Force. SpaceX contracts with NASA involved:
- The use of the Dragon capsule from the SpaceX program, the only U.S. capsule capable of transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS).
- The use of Dragon spacecraft is for cargo delivery for the ISS; the Artemis Human Landing System (AHLS) is a contract worth $2.89 billion to develop the first commercial human lander for Artemis missions to carry American astronauts to the moon.
- An $843 million contract in 2024 to develop a US Deorbit Vehicle to safely deorbit the ISS after its operational life in 2030, to ensure controlled re-entry to avoid risks to populated areas.
- A $69 million contract to launch a gamma-ray telescope in 2027 aboard Falcon 9.
- A $256.6 million contract to provide launch services for the Dragonfly mission, under NASA’s New Frontiers Program designed to explore Saturn’s moon, “Titan,” from July 5, 2028, to July 25, 2028, on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
- The use of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket to carry NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft, which lifted off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Monday, October 14, 2024. The Europa Clipper will travel 1.8 billion miles (2.9 billion km) to reach Jupiter in April 2030 and conduct a detailed study of Jupiter’s moon “Europa” to determine if it currently has habitable conditions.
Some of SpaceX’s contracts with the DoD and Space Force involve:
- Provision of launch services for high-priority national security satellites. Under the Phase 2 launch (covering launches from 2022 to 2027), SpaceX was awarded 22 missions. In the more recent Phase 3 of the NSSL project, SpaceX was awarded $5.92 billion for 28 missions (covering launches between 2027 and 2032) in April 2025.
- A $1.8 billion contract in 2021 with the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) for the provision of Starlink (called Starshield) for military units.
- A $70 million contract with Space Force on October 6, 2025, for provision of Starshield services to provide high-speed broadband, alternative positioning, navigation and timing, and space domain awareness support.
How Dependent is SpaceX on Federal Funding?
According to FoxBusiness, SpaceX has received at least $1 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies, and tax credits since 2016 each year, and between $2 billion and $4 billion per year from 2021 to 2024. Estimates from The Independent put the total of SpaceX’s existing contracts at $89.2 billion.
The aggregate SpaceX has received from the government in terms of loans, grants, and tax credits goes well over billions.
Should SpaceX lose all its government contracts, according to estimates provided by The Independent, it would mean a theoretical maximum of $68 billion in lost potential income. Which is four times more than SpaceX’s entire forecasted revenue for 2025 and nearly 15 times its revenue from 2022.
Chances of Survival
The chances of SpaceX surviving without government funding will be quite slim but doable, as it is a profitable company. Through commercializing launch services and Starlink services, private investments and a potential IPO strategy, and focusing on international markets, it can be quite doable.
However, there are complications to consider due to the political volatility and regulatory complexities, which might make investors hesitant, and with the current feud with Trump, the Musk empire stands a strong chance of being susceptible.
